diff --git a/btc-cycle-sim.html b/btc-cycle-sim.html deleted file mode 100644 index 63a670c02..000000000 --- a/btc-cycle-sim.html +++ /dev/null @@ -1,2109 +0,0 @@ - - - - - - Bitcoin DCA Cycle Simulator - - - -
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Bitcoin DCA Cycle Simulator

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Pick a start date and savings plan, then compare daily DCA with cycle-aware buying and trimming.
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Cycle strategies wait with cash, then buy when BTC falls to - - or lower. They stop new buys when BTC reaches a fresh all-time high (ATH). -

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- How it works -

p-levels are supply cost-basis percentiles: the buy price of the BTC supply at that percentile. p50 means BTC is near the median coin cost basis; lower p-levels usually mean deeper market pain, higher p-levels usually mean heat.

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All cycle strategies use the same buy rule: once the buy phase is active, buy the larger of the p-level grid amount or 0.5% of portfolio value per day. Cycle Buy + Trim sells BTC worth 0.5% of portfolio value per day near p95-p100.

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Daily DCA uses one fixed daily order size based on a 31-day month. It only switches to 2x when enough cash remains to keep buying every day for about a month.

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Start date
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simulation start
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Portfolio value
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- Cycle Buy & Hold - Cycle Buy + Trim - Daily DCA -
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- Hold buys pain, never sells. - Trim buys pain, trims heat. - DCA buys every day. -
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Strategy ranking
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daily portfolio-value rank: 3 is top, 1 is lowest; ties overlap
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Outcomes
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answer first: winner, return, BTC, cash, and pain
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What happened to the money
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BTC stacked, cash held back, buys, average entry, and trim sells.
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BTC stacked
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stack size over time
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Cash left
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uninvested cash by strategy
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Daily buys
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cash deployed each day
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Average buy price
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remaining BTC cost basis vs spot price
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Trim sells
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cash raised by trimming BTC
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How painful it was
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Drawdowns and how long each strategy sat below money put in.
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Portfolio drawdown
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strategy drops plus BTC spot drawdown in white
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Below-deposit streak
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current stretch at or below money put in
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Days above deposits
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cumulative days above money put in
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Days at/below deposits
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cumulative days at or below money put in
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Why the cycle rule acted
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Market zone, cycle state, cash runway, and BTC exposure.
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Market pain / heat zone
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overall supply cost-basis percentile
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Cycle state
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idle, buying, holding, or trimming
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Months of cash left
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cash reserve measured in monthly savings
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BTC share of portfolio
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BTC value as share of total portfolio
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Daily activity
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all days, newest first
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DateBTC priceZonePhaseHold buyTrim buyTrim sellDCA buy
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