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338 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Brandon Collins
5ecfd6cd42 fix: address vecdb compatibility and add unit tests 
- Switch to vecdb 0.6.0 for compatibility with brk_types u8/i8
- Add proper trait imports (VecIndex, AnyVec, IterableVec, etc.)
- Add unit tests for Reserve Risk formula validation:
  - test_hodl_bank_formula: Verifies cumulative calculation
  - test_reserve_risk_formula: Verifies division formula
  - test_reserve_risk_interpretation: Documents metric semantics
  - test_hodl_bank_negative_contribution: Tests edge case

All 16 tests pass (12 existing + 4 new).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-01-20 11:15:30 -05:00
Brandon Collins
f494486e12 feat(cointime): add Reserve Risk metric 
Implements Reserve Risk as a new market indicator for Bitcoin.

## Formula
- Reserve Risk = Price / HODL Bank
- HODL Bank = cumulative Σ(Price - avg_VOCDD) over time
- VOCDD = CDD × Price (Value-weighted Coin Days Destroyed)

## Changes
- Added `vocdd` (Value-weighted CDD) to `cointime/value` module
- Created new `cointime/reserve_risk` module containing:
  - `vocdd_365d_sma`: 365-day moving average of VOCDD
  - `hodl_bank`: Cumulative opportunity cost of holding
  - `reserve_risk`: Final ratio metric for timing accumulation
- Wired into cointime compute pipeline (price-dependent)

## Use Case
Reserve Risk measures long-term holder confidence.
Low values indicate high confidence and potential buying opportunity.
High values suggest overheated market conditions.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-01-20 10:53:20 -05:00
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