Commit Graph

4 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
nym21
3b7aa8242a global: MASSIVE snapshot 2026-02-23 17:22:12 +01:00
Brandon Collins
f494486e12 feat(cointime): add Reserve Risk metric
Implements Reserve Risk as a new market indicator for Bitcoin.

## Formula
- Reserve Risk = Price / HODL Bank
- HODL Bank = cumulative Σ(Price - avg_VOCDD) over time
- VOCDD = CDD × Price (Value-weighted Coin Days Destroyed)

## Changes
- Added `vocdd` (Value-weighted CDD) to `cointime/value` module
- Created new `cointime/reserve_risk` module containing:
  - `vocdd_365d_sma`: 365-day moving average of VOCDD
  - `hodl_bank`: Cumulative opportunity cost of holding
  - `reserve_risk`: Final ratio metric for timing accumulation
- Wired into cointime compute pipeline (price-dependent)

## Use Case
Reserve Risk measures long-term holder confidence.
Low values indicate high confidence and potential buying opportunity.
High values suggest overheated market conditions.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-01-20 10:53:20 -05:00
nym21
3cae817915 global: BIG snapshot 2026-01-04 01:47:03 +01:00
nym21
3e9b1cc2b2 global: MASSIVE snapshot 2026-01-02 19:08:20 +01:00