mirror of
https://github.com/bitcoinresearchkit/brk.git
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643 lines
21 KiB
Rust
643 lines
21 KiB
Rust
use brk_error::Result;
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use brk_traversable::Traversable;
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use brk_types::{
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BasisPoints32, BasisPointsSigned32, Bitcoin, Cents, CentsSats, CentsSigned, CentsSquaredSats,
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Dollars, Height, Indexes, StoredF64, Version,
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};
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use derive_more::{Deref, DerefMut};
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use vecdb::{
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AnyStoredVec, AnyVec, BytesVec, Exit, ReadableCloneableVec, ReadableVec, Rw, StorageMode,
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WritableVec,
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};
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use crate::{
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blocks,
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distribution::state::{WithCapital, CohortState, CostBasisData, RealizedState},
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internal::{
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CentsUnsignedToDollars, PerBlock, PerBlockCumulative,
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PerBlockCumulativeWithSums, FiatPerBlockCumulativeWithSums,
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LazyPerBlock, PercentPerBlock, PercentRollingWindows, Price,
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PriceWithRatioExtendedPerBlock, RatioCents64, RatioCentsBp32,
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RatioCentsSignedCentsBps32, RatioCentsSignedDollarsBps32, RatioDollarsBp32,
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RatioPerBlockPercentiles, RatioPerBlockStdDevBands, RatioSma, RollingWindows,
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RollingWindowsFrom1w,
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},
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prices,
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};
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use crate::distribution::metrics::ImportConfig;
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use super::RealizedCore;
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#[derive(Traversable)]
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pub struct RealizedProfit<M: StorageMode = Rw> {
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pub rel_to_rcap: PercentPerBlock<BasisPoints32, M>,
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pub value_created: PerBlockCumulativeWithSums<Cents, Cents, M>,
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pub value_destroyed: PerBlockCumulativeWithSums<Cents, Cents, M>,
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pub distribution_flow: LazyPerBlock<Dollars, Cents>,
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}
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#[derive(Traversable)]
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pub struct RealizedLoss<M: StorageMode = Rw> {
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pub rel_to_rcap: PercentPerBlock<BasisPoints32, M>,
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pub value_created: PerBlockCumulativeWithSums<Cents, Cents, M>,
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pub value_destroyed: PerBlockCumulativeWithSums<Cents, Cents, M>,
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pub capitulation_flow: LazyPerBlock<Dollars, Cents>,
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}
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#[derive(Traversable)]
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pub struct RealizedNetPnl<M: StorageMode = Rw> {
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pub rel_to_rcap: PercentPerBlock<BasisPointsSigned32, M>,
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#[traversable(wrap = "change_1m", rename = "rel_to_rcap")]
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pub change_1m_rel_to_rcap: PercentPerBlock<BasisPointsSigned32, M>,
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#[traversable(wrap = "change_1m", rename = "rel_to_mcap")]
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pub change_1m_rel_to_mcap: PercentPerBlock<BasisPointsSigned32, M>,
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}
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#[derive(Traversable)]
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pub struct RealizedSopr<M: StorageMode = Rw> {
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#[traversable(rename = "ratio")]
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pub ratio_extended: RollingWindowsFrom1w<StoredF64, M>,
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}
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#[derive(Traversable)]
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pub struct RealizedPeakRegret<M: StorageMode = Rw> {
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#[traversable(flatten)]
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pub value: PerBlockCumulative<Cents, M>,
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pub rel_to_rcap: PercentPerBlock<BasisPoints32, M>,
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}
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#[derive(Traversable)]
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pub struct RealizedInvestor<M: StorageMode = Rw> {
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pub price: PriceWithRatioExtendedPerBlock<M>,
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pub lower_price_band: Price<PerBlock<Cents, M>>,
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pub upper_price_band: Price<PerBlock<Cents, M>>,
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#[traversable(hidden)]
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pub cap_raw: M::Stored<BytesVec<Height, CentsSquaredSats>>,
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}
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#[derive(Deref, DerefMut, Traversable)]
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pub struct RealizedFull<M: StorageMode = Rw> {
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#[deref]
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#[deref_mut]
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#[traversable(flatten)]
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pub core: RealizedCore<M>,
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pub profit: RealizedProfit<M>,
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pub loss: RealizedLoss<M>,
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pub gross_pnl: FiatPerBlockCumulativeWithSums<Cents, M>,
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pub sell_side_risk_ratio: PercentRollingWindows<BasisPoints32, M>,
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pub net_pnl: RealizedNetPnl<M>,
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pub sopr: RealizedSopr<M>,
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pub peak_regret: RealizedPeakRegret<M>,
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pub investor: RealizedInvestor<M>,
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pub profit_to_loss_ratio: RollingWindows<StoredF64, M>,
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#[traversable(hidden)]
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pub cap_raw: M::Stored<BytesVec<Height, CentsSats>>,
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#[traversable(wrap = "cap", rename = "rel_to_own_mcap")]
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pub cap_rel_to_own_mcap: PercentPerBlock<BasisPoints32, M>,
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#[traversable(wrap = "price", rename = "percentiles")]
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pub price_ratio_percentiles: RatioPerBlockPercentiles<M>,
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#[traversable(wrap = "price", rename = "sma")]
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pub price_ratio_sma: RatioSma<M>,
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#[traversable(wrap = "price", rename = "std_dev")]
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pub price_ratio_std_dev: RatioPerBlockStdDevBands<M>,
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}
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impl RealizedFull {
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pub(crate) fn forced_import(cfg: &ImportConfig) -> Result<Self> {
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let v0 = Version::ZERO;
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let v1 = Version::ONE;
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let core = RealizedCore::forced_import(cfg)?;
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// Profit
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let profit_value_destroyed: PerBlockCumulativeWithSums<Cents, Cents> =
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cfg.import("profit_value_destroyed", v1)?;
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let profit_flow = LazyPerBlock::from_computed::<CentsUnsignedToDollars>(
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&cfg.name("distribution_flow"),
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cfg.version,
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profit_value_destroyed.base.height.read_only_boxed_clone(),
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&profit_value_destroyed.base,
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);
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let profit = RealizedProfit {
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rel_to_rcap: cfg.import("realized_profit_rel_to_rcap", Version::new(2))?,
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value_created: cfg.import("profit_value_created", v1)?,
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value_destroyed: profit_value_destroyed,
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distribution_flow: profit_flow,
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};
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// Loss
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let loss_value_destroyed: PerBlockCumulativeWithSums<Cents, Cents> =
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cfg.import("loss_value_destroyed", v1)?;
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let capitulation_flow = LazyPerBlock::from_computed::<CentsUnsignedToDollars>(
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&cfg.name("capitulation_flow"),
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cfg.version,
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loss_value_destroyed.base.height.read_only_boxed_clone(),
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&loss_value_destroyed.base,
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);
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let loss = RealizedLoss {
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rel_to_rcap: cfg.import("realized_loss_rel_to_rcap", Version::new(2))?,
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value_created: cfg.import("loss_value_created", v1)?,
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value_destroyed: loss_value_destroyed,
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capitulation_flow,
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};
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// Gross PnL
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let gross_pnl: FiatPerBlockCumulativeWithSums<Cents> =
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cfg.import("realized_gross_pnl", v1)?;
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let sell_side_risk_ratio = cfg.import("sell_side_risk_ratio", Version::new(2))?;
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// Net PnL
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let net_pnl = RealizedNetPnl {
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rel_to_rcap: cfg
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.import("net_realized_pnl_rel_to_rcap", Version::new(2))?,
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change_1m_rel_to_rcap: cfg
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.import("net_pnl_change_1m_rel_to_rcap", Version::new(4))?,
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change_1m_rel_to_mcap: cfg
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.import("net_pnl_change_1m_rel_to_mcap", Version::new(4))?,
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};
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// SOPR
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let sopr = RealizedSopr {
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ratio_extended: cfg.import("sopr", v1)?,
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};
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// Peak regret
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let peak_regret = RealizedPeakRegret {
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value: cfg.import("realized_peak_regret", Version::new(2))?,
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rel_to_rcap: cfg
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.import("realized_peak_regret_rel_to_rcap", Version::new(2))?,
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};
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// Investor
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let investor = RealizedInvestor {
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price: cfg.import("investor_price", v0)?,
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lower_price_band: cfg.import("lower_price_band", v0)?,
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upper_price_band: cfg.import("upper_price_band", v0)?,
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cap_raw: cfg.import("investor_cap_raw", v0)?,
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};
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// Price ratio stats
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let realized_price_name = cfg.name("realized_price");
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let realized_price_version = cfg.version + v1;
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Ok(Self {
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core,
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profit,
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loss,
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gross_pnl,
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sell_side_risk_ratio,
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net_pnl,
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sopr,
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peak_regret,
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investor,
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profit_to_loss_ratio: cfg.import("realized_profit_to_loss_ratio", v1)?,
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cap_raw: cfg.import("cap_raw", v0)?,
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cap_rel_to_own_mcap: cfg.import("realized_cap_rel_to_own_mcap", v1)?,
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price_ratio_percentiles: RatioPerBlockPercentiles::forced_import(
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cfg.db,
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&realized_price_name,
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realized_price_version,
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cfg.indexes,
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)?,
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price_ratio_sma: RatioSma::forced_import(
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cfg.db,
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&realized_price_name,
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realized_price_version,
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cfg.indexes,
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)?,
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price_ratio_std_dev: RatioPerBlockStdDevBands::forced_import(
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cfg.db,
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&realized_price_name,
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realized_price_version,
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cfg.indexes,
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)?,
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})
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}
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pub(crate) fn min_stateful_len(&self) -> usize {
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self.profit
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.value_created
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.base
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.height
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.len()
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.min(self.profit.value_destroyed.base.height.len())
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.min(self.loss.value_created.base.height.len())
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.min(self.loss.value_destroyed.base.height.len())
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.min(self.investor.price.cents.height.len())
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.min(self.cap_raw.len())
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.min(self.investor.cap_raw.len())
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.min(self.peak_regret.value.base.height.len())
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}
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pub(crate) fn truncate_push(
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&mut self,
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height: Height,
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state: &CohortState<RealizedState, CostBasisData<WithCapital>>,
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) -> Result<()> {
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self.core.truncate_push(height, state)?;
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self.profit
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.value_created
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.base
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.height
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.truncate_push(height, state.realized.profit_value_created())?;
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self.profit
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.value_destroyed
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.base
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.height
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.truncate_push(height, state.realized.profit_value_destroyed())?;
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self.loss
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.value_created
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.base
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.height
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.truncate_push(height, state.realized.loss_value_created())?;
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self.loss
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.value_destroyed
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.base
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.height
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.truncate_push(height, state.realized.loss_value_destroyed())?;
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self.investor
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.price
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.cents
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.height
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.truncate_push(height, state.realized.investor_price())?;
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self.cap_raw
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.truncate_push(height, state.realized.cap_raw())?;
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self.investor
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.cap_raw
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.truncate_push(height, state.realized.investor_cap_raw())?;
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self.peak_regret
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.value
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.base
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.height
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.truncate_push(height, state.realized.peak_regret())?;
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Ok(())
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}
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pub(crate) fn collect_vecs_mut(&mut self) -> Vec<&mut dyn AnyStoredVec> {
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let mut vecs = self.core.collect_vecs_mut();
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vecs.push(&mut self.profit.value_created.base.height as &mut dyn AnyStoredVec);
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vecs.push(&mut self.profit.value_destroyed.base.height);
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vecs.push(&mut self.loss.value_created.base.height);
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vecs.push(&mut self.loss.value_destroyed.base.height);
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vecs.push(&mut self.investor.price.cents.height);
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vecs.push(&mut self.cap_raw as &mut dyn AnyStoredVec);
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vecs.push(&mut self.investor.cap_raw as &mut dyn AnyStoredVec);
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vecs.push(&mut self.peak_regret.value.base.height);
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vecs
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}
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pub(crate) fn compute_from_stateful(
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&mut self,
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starting_indexes: &Indexes,
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others: &[&RealizedCore],
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exit: &Exit,
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) -> Result<()> {
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self.core
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.compute_from_stateful(starting_indexes, others, exit)?;
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Ok(())
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}
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pub(crate) fn push_from_accum(
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&mut self,
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accum: &RealizedFullAccum,
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height: Height,
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) -> Result<()> {
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self.profit
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.value_created
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.base
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.height
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.truncate_push(height, accum.profit_value_created())?;
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self.profit
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.value_destroyed
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.base
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.height
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.truncate_push(height, accum.profit_value_destroyed())?;
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self.loss
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.value_created
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.base
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.height
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.truncate_push(height, accum.loss_value_created())?;
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self.loss
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.value_destroyed
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.base
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.height
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.truncate_push(height, accum.loss_value_destroyed())?;
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self.cap_raw
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.truncate_push(height, accum.cap_raw)?;
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self.investor
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.cap_raw
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.truncate_push(height, accum.investor_cap_raw)?;
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let investor_price = {
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let cap = accum.cap_raw.as_u128();
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if cap == 0 {
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Cents::ZERO
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} else {
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Cents::new((accum.investor_cap_raw / cap) as u64)
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}
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};
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self.investor
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.price
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.cents
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.height
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.truncate_push(height, investor_price)?;
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self.peak_regret
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.value
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.base
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.height
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.truncate_push(height, accum.peak_regret())?;
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Ok(())
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}
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pub(crate) fn compute_rest_part1(
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&mut self,
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starting_indexes: &Indexes,
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exit: &Exit,
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) -> Result<()> {
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self.core
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.compute_rest_part1(starting_indexes, exit)?;
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self.peak_regret
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.value
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.compute_rest(starting_indexes.height, exit)?;
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Ok(())
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}
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pub(crate) fn compute_rest_part2(
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&mut self,
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blocks: &blocks::Vecs,
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prices: &prices::Vecs,
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starting_indexes: &Indexes,
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height_to_supply: &impl ReadableVec<Height, Bitcoin>,
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height_to_market_cap: &impl ReadableVec<Height, Dollars>,
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exit: &Exit,
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) -> Result<()> {
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self.core.compute_rest_part2(
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prices,
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starting_indexes,
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height_to_supply,
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exit,
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)?;
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// SOPR ratios from lazy rolling sums
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for ((sopr, vc), vd) in self
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.sopr
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.ratio_extended
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.as_mut_array()
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.into_iter()
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.zip(self.core.minimal.sopr.value_created.sum.as_array()[1..].iter())
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.zip(self.core.minimal.sopr.value_destroyed.sum.as_array()[1..].iter())
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{
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sopr.compute_binary::<Cents, Cents, RatioCents64>(
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starting_indexes.height,
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&vc.height,
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&vd.height,
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exit,
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)?;
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}
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// Profit/loss/net_pnl rel to realized cap
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self.profit
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.rel_to_rcap
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.compute_binary::<Cents, Cents, RatioCentsBp32>(
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starting_indexes.height,
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&self.core.minimal.profit.base.cents.height,
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&self.core.minimal.cap.cents.height,
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exit,
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)?;
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self.loss
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.rel_to_rcap
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.compute_binary::<Cents, Cents, RatioCentsBp32>(
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starting_indexes.height,
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&self.core.minimal.loss.base.cents.height,
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&self.core.minimal.cap.cents.height,
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exit,
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)?;
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self.net_pnl
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.rel_to_rcap
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.compute_binary::<CentsSigned, Cents, RatioCentsSignedCentsBps32>(
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starting_indexes.height,
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&self.core.net_pnl.base.cents.height,
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&self.core.minimal.cap.cents.height,
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exit,
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)?;
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// Profit/loss value created/destroyed cumulatives (rolling sums are lazy)
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self.profit
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.value_created
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.compute_rest(starting_indexes.height, exit)?;
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self.profit
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.value_destroyed
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.compute_rest(starting_indexes.height, exit)?;
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self.loss
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.value_created
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.compute_rest(starting_indexes.height, exit)?;
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self.loss
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.value_destroyed
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.compute_rest(starting_indexes.height, exit)?;
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// Gross PnL
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self.gross_pnl.base.cents.height.compute_add(
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starting_indexes.height,
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&self.core.minimal.profit.base.cents.height,
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&self.core.minimal.loss.base.cents.height,
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exit,
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)?;
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self.gross_pnl
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.compute_rest(starting_indexes.height, exit)?;
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// Net PnL 1m change relative to rcap and mcap
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self.net_pnl
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.change_1m_rel_to_rcap
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.compute_binary::<CentsSigned, Cents, RatioCentsSignedCentsBps32>(
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starting_indexes.height,
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&self.core.net_pnl.delta.absolute._1m.cents.height,
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&self.core.minimal.cap.cents.height,
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exit,
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)?;
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self.net_pnl
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.change_1m_rel_to_mcap
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.compute_binary::<CentsSigned, Dollars, RatioCentsSignedDollarsBps32>(
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starting_indexes.height,
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&self.core.net_pnl.delta.absolute._1m.cents.height,
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height_to_market_cap,
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exit,
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)?;
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|
// Peak regret rel to rcap
|
|
self.peak_regret
|
|
.rel_to_rcap
|
|
.compute_binary::<Cents, Cents, RatioCentsBp32>(
|
|
starting_indexes.height,
|
|
&self.peak_regret.value.base.height,
|
|
&self.core.minimal.cap.cents.height,
|
|
exit,
|
|
)?;
|
|
|
|
// Investor price ratio, percentiles and bands
|
|
self.investor.price.compute_rest(
|
|
prices,
|
|
starting_indexes,
|
|
exit,
|
|
)?;
|
|
|
|
self.investor
|
|
.lower_price_band
|
|
.cents
|
|
.height
|
|
.compute_transform2(
|
|
starting_indexes.height,
|
|
&self.core.minimal.price.cents.height,
|
|
&self.investor.price.cents.height,
|
|
|(i, rp, ip, ..)| {
|
|
let rp = rp.as_u128();
|
|
let ip = ip.as_u128();
|
|
if ip == 0 {
|
|
(i, Cents::ZERO)
|
|
} else {
|
|
(i, Cents::from(rp * rp / ip))
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
exit,
|
|
)?;
|
|
|
|
self.investor
|
|
.upper_price_band
|
|
.cents
|
|
.height
|
|
.compute_transform2(
|
|
starting_indexes.height,
|
|
&self.investor.price.cents.height,
|
|
&self.core.minimal.price.cents.height,
|
|
|(i, ip, rp, ..)| {
|
|
let ip = ip.as_u128();
|
|
let rp = rp.as_u128();
|
|
if rp == 0 {
|
|
(i, Cents::ZERO)
|
|
} else {
|
|
(i, Cents::from(ip * ip / rp))
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
exit,
|
|
)?;
|
|
|
|
// Sell-side risk ratios
|
|
for (ssrr, rv) in self
|
|
.sell_side_risk_ratio
|
|
.as_mut_array()
|
|
.into_iter()
|
|
.zip(self.gross_pnl.sum.as_array())
|
|
{
|
|
ssrr.compute_binary::<Cents, Cents, RatioCentsBp32>(
|
|
starting_indexes.height,
|
|
&rv.cents.height,
|
|
&self.core.minimal.cap.cents.height,
|
|
exit,
|
|
)?;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// Realized cap relative to own market cap
|
|
self.cap_rel_to_own_mcap
|
|
.compute_binary::<Dollars, Dollars, RatioDollarsBp32>(
|
|
starting_indexes.height,
|
|
&self.core.minimal.cap.usd.height,
|
|
height_to_market_cap,
|
|
exit,
|
|
)?;
|
|
|
|
// Realized profit to loss ratios
|
|
for ((ratio, profit), loss) in self
|
|
.profit_to_loss_ratio
|
|
.as_mut_array()
|
|
.into_iter()
|
|
.zip(self.core.minimal.profit.sum.as_array())
|
|
.zip(self.core.minimal.loss.sum.as_array())
|
|
{
|
|
ratio.compute_binary::<Cents, Cents, RatioCents64>(
|
|
starting_indexes.height,
|
|
&profit.cents.height,
|
|
&loss.cents.height,
|
|
exit,
|
|
)?;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// Price ratio: percentiles, sma and std dev bands
|
|
self.price_ratio_percentiles.compute(
|
|
starting_indexes,
|
|
exit,
|
|
&self.core.minimal.price.ratio.height,
|
|
&self.core.minimal.price.cents.height,
|
|
)?;
|
|
|
|
self.price_ratio_sma.compute(
|
|
blocks,
|
|
starting_indexes,
|
|
exit,
|
|
&self.core.minimal.price.ratio.height,
|
|
)?;
|
|
|
|
self.price_ratio_std_dev.compute(
|
|
blocks,
|
|
starting_indexes,
|
|
exit,
|
|
&self.core.minimal.price.ratio.height,
|
|
&self.core.minimal.price.cents.height,
|
|
&self.price_ratio_sma,
|
|
)?;
|
|
|
|
Ok(())
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
#[derive(Default)]
|
|
pub struct RealizedFullAccum {
|
|
profit_value_created: CentsSats,
|
|
profit_value_destroyed: CentsSats,
|
|
loss_value_created: CentsSats,
|
|
loss_value_destroyed: CentsSats,
|
|
pub(crate) cap_raw: CentsSats,
|
|
pub(crate) investor_cap_raw: CentsSquaredSats,
|
|
peak_regret: CentsSats,
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
impl RealizedFullAccum {
|
|
pub(crate) fn add(&mut self, state: &RealizedState) {
|
|
self.profit_value_created += CentsSats::new(state.profit_value_created_raw());
|
|
self.profit_value_destroyed += CentsSats::new(state.profit_value_destroyed_raw());
|
|
self.loss_value_created += CentsSats::new(state.loss_value_created_raw());
|
|
self.loss_value_destroyed += CentsSats::new(state.loss_value_destroyed_raw());
|
|
self.cap_raw += state.cap_raw();
|
|
self.investor_cap_raw += state.investor_cap_raw();
|
|
self.peak_regret += CentsSats::new(state.peak_regret_raw());
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
pub(crate) fn profit_value_created(&self) -> Cents {
|
|
self.profit_value_created.to_cents()
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
pub(crate) fn profit_value_destroyed(&self) -> Cents {
|
|
self.profit_value_destroyed.to_cents()
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
pub(crate) fn loss_value_created(&self) -> Cents {
|
|
self.loss_value_created.to_cents()
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
pub(crate) fn loss_value_destroyed(&self) -> Cents {
|
|
self.loss_value_destroyed.to_cents()
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
pub(crate) fn peak_regret(&self) -> Cents {
|
|
self.peak_regret.to_cents()
|
|
}
|
|
}
|